THE Ohio State Buckeyes vs. The Southern California Trojans
Table of Contents:
I. 35 “Who Is Better?” Questions are Answered
II. Statistical Comparison of the Teams
III. Conclusion Thoughts
IV. Predictions
V. Afterthoughts
I. 35 Questions:
KEY:
(+) means, “significantly better”
(-) means, “only a little better”
(no sign) means, “generally better”
SO, WHICH TEAM HAS THE BETTER….
1. Overall Talent / Athleticism? USC
USC- Best overall roster talent in college football
OSU-behind USC, UF, Texas & LSU
OSU- similar talent to OU, UGA, Alabama, Miami, FSU
2. Home field Advantage? Ohio State +
3. Athlete? Ohio State
Best Overall Athlete:
Terrelle Pryor, QB
Best USC Athlete:
Taylor Mays, SS
4. Offensive Talent? USC +
5. Offensive strategy / design? USC +
6. Play calling? USC +
USC’s aggression has produced a better combined turnover ratio past 7 yrs than OSU’s conservatism
7. Offensive Experience? Even
USC has the entire o-line back but a true Frosh QB
8. Overall Offense? USC +
9. Running Game? USC +
Biggest talent discrepancy on the field
10. Passing Game? USC
11. QB Experience? Ohio State +
12. Running QB? Ohio State +
Terrelle Pryor is the fastest Buckeye around 4.33
Aaron Corp (backup) (4.6) can run
13. Passing QB? USC +
1. Barkley 2. Corp 3. Mustain 4. Pryor
14. Overall QB? Ohio State -
Pryor is developing nicely… A breakout game is coming
Pryor has not yet ‘arrived’ as a complete QB
Barkley has Elway-like potential but is raw
15. Wide Receivers? USC +
Significant athleticism discrepancy
Best Overall Receiver:
1. Damian Williams- USC
2. Ronald Johnson- USC (out)
3. Devier Posey- Ohio State (injured but likely)
4. Dane Sanzenbacher- Ohio State (steady)
16. Running Backs? USC +
USC has 4 or 5 running backs that could potentially start for OSU
Best Overall Running Back:
1. Stafon Johnson
2. Joe McKnight
3. C.J. Gable
4. Daniel “Boom” Herron or Brandon Saine
17. Fullback? USC +
Stanley Havili is a monster
18. Offensive Line? USC +
USC regarded as best offensive line in college football
Best Offensive Lineman:
K. O’Dowd-C
Best OSU O-Lineman:
J. Boren-RG (Michigan Transfer)
19. Pass Blocking O-Line? USC +
USC O-line without much “fat”…they move well
20. Run blocking O-Line? USC
21. Tight-End? USC
Anthony McCoy & Blake Ayles
22. Overall Defensive Talent? Ohio State -
USC returns 3 starters but lots of game experience, talented secondary
23. Overall Defensive Experience? Ohio State +
Most experienced D-line since 2002
24. Defensive Line? Ohio State
Deepest D-line since 2002
25. Defensive Ends? Ohio State +
Thaddeus Gibson is a bad, bad man
Best Defensive Ends:
1. Thaddeus Gibson- Ohio State
2. Nathan Williams- Ohio State (pass rushing)
3. Everson Griffen- USC
26. Defensive Tackles? Ohio State
Dexter Larimore is the bell cow
27. Linebackers? Ohio State -
28. Overall Defensive Backfield? USC
Best Defensive Playmaker:
T. Mays, S, (USC)
Best OSU Defensive Playmaker:
K. Coleman, S
J. Hines replaces A. Russell as #1 FS
A. Russell will play in the “Nickel”
29. Overall Defense? Ohio State -
Ohio State has a better d-line
USC comes out ahead in overall db’s
30. Head Coach? USC
Nobody makes halftime adjustments like Pete Carroll
Pete Carroll plays, “to win”
Tressel plays, “not to lose”
31. Assistant Coaches? USC -
Heacock and Fickell are very well regarded
Bollman is running out of excuses for his 0-lines
Not sure how Dick Tressel is qualified to coach RB’s
32. Special Teams? Even
OSU must outplay USC here to win
33. Attitude? USC
OSU believes it can win. USC expects to win.
34. Intangibles? USC
23.8 pt margin of victory last 9 games vs. Big 10
Beaten OSU 6 straight, dating to mid-1970’s
35. Is Ohio State ready to rise to the top or sink once more?
Wildcards:
X-Factor: Pryor vs. Barkley- Who makes the biggest / most plays?
Adv: Pryor
Y-Factor: O-lines vs D-Lines- Who controls the trenches?
Adv: USC
Z-Factor: Turnovers- OSU must win this battle to win the war
Adv: TBD
SUMMARY: The Comparison:
USC Ahead: 20-12-2 in categories
II. Sub tallies
Defensive Experience:
DT: Ohio State
DE: Ohio State
Linebackers: Even
CB’s: USC
Safeties: Even
Ohio State: 2-1-2
Defensive Talent:
CB: USC
S: USC
LB: Even
DE: Ohio State
DT: Even
USC: 2-1-2
Defense (talent + experience)
Even 3-3-4
Offensive Experience:
QB: Ohio State
Backs: USC
Wide Receivers: USC
O-Line: USC
Tight Ends: Ohio State
USC: 3-2
Offensive Talent:
QB: Ohio State
RB: USC
FB: USC
TE: USC
OL: USC
WR: USC
USC: 5-1-0
Offense: (talent +experience):
USC: 8-3-0
Subtotal 1:
EVEN : 4-4-2 on experience
USC: 7-3-2 on talent
Overall: USC 11-7-4
Subtotal 2:
EVEN : 3-3-4 on Defense
USC: 8-3-0 on Offense
Overall: USC: 11-6-4
The Unquantifiable Factors….
1. These comparisons do not factor in the effect of the home crowd at Ohio Stadium
2. These comparison do not factor in coaching where USC is significantly better on the offensive side of the ball and in making half-time adjustments
3. These comparisons do not account for special teams play
4. These comparisons do not account for turnovers
5. These comparisons do not account for the possible effect of other true freshmen on the game
6. These comparisons do not account for productive and timely trick plays
III. CONCLUSION
In facing a defense that returns only 3 starters, a new offensive and defensive coordinator and a true Frosh QB making his first career road start, Ohio State absolutely, positively SHOULD win this football game. Still, after a series of disappointments, doubt about OSU’s ability to win “the big one’ is widespread throughout the college football world. And, this is USC. Ohio State must defeat a more talented team and aggressive coach by utilizing its defensive line depth and experience to neutralize the line of scrimmage. In turn, the young but talented linebackers must shed blocks, fill gaps and reasonably contain the SC running game. In addition to Larimore, Denlinger and Worthington, Rose and Freshman Johnny Simon will rep in a deep but unspectacular DT rotation. Wilson will play some DE, particularly in running situations, pushing Heyward, OSU’s most versatile d-lineman inside. On the edges, Gibson is a talented pass rusher who is improving against the run and Williams is a pure pass rusher. When Williams is at DE, the Buckeyes are expecting a pass and when Wilson is there, a run—none of this is a secret. In all, the defensive line is deep but after surrendering over 300 yards of total offense to Navy, one must worry about the unit’s ability to produce against a talented offensive line that dominated the line of scrimmage in last year’s game. There’s no time like the present for the Buckeye defensive line to again measure itself against the best offensive line in college football.
In addition, OSU must attend to details and attempt to beat SC in the margins. Offensively, OSU must put Pryor in the shotgun-spread and allow him to control the game. Through running Pryor, timely short passes, occasional deep passes and mixing-in runs with the backs, Ohio State must find a way to control the clock, control field position and win the turnover battle. Adding to the formula for OSU success, the Buckeyes must make a big play or two on special teams to neutralize at least a few big SC offensive plays. This formula is Jim Tressel’s house recipe. However, in the last five years, while Tressel’s teams have dominated the deteriorating Big 10 with such a plan, they have equally bombed against teams with comparable or better talent (1-5 versus Florida, LSU, USC & Texas). Considering OSU beat Texas in McCoy’s second career start and Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl when the Irish had beaten only 1 team with a winning record, there are some who feel the last big out-of-conference win under Jim Tressel came in January of 2003 against Miami. Folks, that was 7 seasons ago. That is, unless you consider Kansas State a “power.”
As always, under Tressel’s philosophy, the OSU defense inherits a great deal of responsibility and pressure. The defensive line must maintain lanes and neutralize the talented and athletic SC line. The linebackers must be sure tacklers in space and the DB’s cannot afford any lapses or mistakes in coverage. Inevitably, SC will make a few huge offensive plays, Ohio State can’t hand the Trojans a couple more. The focus of the OSU offense will be to stop the SC running game and force true frosh QB Matt Barkley to beat them on 3rd and long. To counter, early in the game, Pete Carroll will lean heavily on future first round draft picks, Stafon Johnson and Joe McKnight, the former being the more complete back and the latter the more explosive and elusive, to run behind a tremendous offensive line in an effort to control the game. Carroll wants to take as much pressure off his talented true freshman quarterback as possible. If SC can run the ball effectively, then the passing lanes will open and SC will cruise to victory.
In the end, this game is a classic battle of aggressive football versus conservative football with the attitude of the each team mirroring that of its head coach. Barring huge mistakes, with equal talent, aggressive game plans usually win. When the aggressive team also has better talent, you get 35-3 like last year. Jim Tressel must coach like it’s Michigan and the season is on the line. While the season is not, the reputation of the program, the league and the head coach do hang in the balance. OSU will also be hosting over a dozen of the finest recruits from across America, including several from Florida and one from California all sizing up their desire to play for Ohio State. A good showing is needed.
In reality, Jim Tressel’s success at Ohio State depends on how it is measured. If dominating the Big 10, where the Buckeyes take the field with superior athletes in 9 of every 10 games, alone is the measure of success, then Jim Tressel is the second coming of Vince Lombardi. If matching equally and sometimes more talented teams from other conferences and beating them 50% of the time regardless of game location is the true measure of a championship-caliber program, then Jim Tressel needs a good mirror. And while you can’t win 5 National Championships without being a great coach, everything is fluid in college football—especially greatness. Tressel’s conservative approach was better suited for the college football game 9 years ago when he assumed the reigns as Ohio State’s head coach. Now, Spurrier is out at Florida, Meyer is in, Carr is gone at Michigan, replaced by Rodriguez. The college game is changing and second to talent, adaptability is the key ingredient for long term coaching success and longevity. Fortunately for Buckeye fans, Tressel has made adjustments in his recruiting philosophy, backing away from in-state “projects” on the offensive line and pursuing top rated lineman across the country as well as to his offensive schemes by implementing some spread and multiple receiver formations. However, despite all the changes, the passive offensive line play, the offensive line coach and the predictable play calling by down, distance, formation and field position all remain the same. In this day and age, Ohio State can dominate the Purdue’s and Michigan State’s all the way to rapture with such a straightforward strategy but without forcing 5 turnovers, it can’t beat the USC’s, the Florida’s or the LSU’s of the world playing not-to-lose on offense. Jim Tressel must realize this fact or he is doomed to follow the plight of other championship winning coaches who refused to change, a list containing names like Carr and Fulmer. Another embarrassing loss on the national stage and the canon will rightfully be pointed at Tressel and his staff. After all, Ohio State is putting as many players in the NFL as USC.
As for Saturday night, the weight of the offensive is on Pryor’s shoulders to make big plays and carry an offense lacking additional playmakers and a smash-mouth offensive line. The good news is, Pryor can handle the pressure, has improved as a leader and passer and should have throwing lanes open as the USC defense commits to stopping his running game. The potentially bad news is, the balance of the game rests with the Ohio State defensive line in its match up with the highly talented, highly athletic and highly acclaimed SC offensive line. Can the Buckeye defensive line control the line of scrimmage or at least neutralize it and utilize its depth and experience to allow the linebackers to contain the powerful USC running game all while getting pressure on the QB on passing plays? The answer to this question in all recent big out of conference games has been a resounding, “NO” for the Buckeyes. In the past 3 non-big 10 games against Top 10 BCS opponents, Ohio State’s defense yielded 326 yards to LSU, 348 yards to USC and 468 yards to Texas. At any level of football, those defensive numbers virtually guarantee a loss. Saturday night, anxious Buckeye fans will push into Ohio Stadium looking for something new while fearing more of the same.
IV. PREDICTIONS
IT’S About Time Prediction: OSU 26-USC 20
Ohio State moves the ball well out of the shotgun-spread with Pryor’s feet, taking a page from Texas and Vince Young by utilizing the ‘zone read’ repeatedly and effectively. Pryor’s legs open up the passing game and the Ohio State offense takes a big step forward. The Buckeye defense neutralizes the line of scrimmage, gets pressure on the QB and reasonably contains the talented SC running backs to 125 yards or less. The home crowd is a factor and the Buckeye defense gets a few key turnovers and OSU’s special teams make a big play. Barkley flashes his talent but also struggles to read coverages at times, makes a few forced mistakes and the Buckeye defense capitalizes and creates a short field for the offense. Tressel and company get the coveted elite, out-of-conference win they have been so criticized for missing the past few years.
Logical Prediction: USC 27- OSU 17
The Buckeye defense plays reasonably well for 3 quarters but gets little help from the OSU offense, wears down late in the game and surrenders a few big plays as well as consistent chunks of yardage on the ground. The defense gets little pressure on Barkley while SC pressures Pryor all night. The OSU passing game is frustrated by exceptional athletes in the SC defensive backfield and a defensive line beating OSU up front. The running game beyond Pryor is a non-factor. A key turnover thwarts any hope of an OSU comeback and USC controls the clock well with an effective running game and timely third down conversions. OSU settles for field goal attempts on several key possessions early in SC territory and regrets it later. Better overall talent and aggressive play calling carry the day against a Buckeye team that doesn’t appear to have a nasty streak and a coaching staff that appears to think it’s playing Purdue. Buckeye fans, we’ve seen this script before in big out-of-conference games. Tressel doesn’t change, neither does the result. And the ‘quality of coaching’ drum beats grow louder….
Counter thoughts:
I can count on one hand the number of times a team has been able to one dimensionally dismantle a Buckeye defense. Last season, Colt McCoy passed for 414 of Texas’ 468 yards of offense in squeezing by Ohio State. In 2007, Illinois ran the same play for the last 9 minutes controlling the clock and ball before walking out of Ohio Stadium a winner. In 1998, the Michigan State Spartans used 6’7” receiver Plaxico Burris and nearly 400 yards passing to defeat a heavily favored OSU team. Several years earlier, a Michigan tailback by the name of Tim Biakabatuka blitzed OSU’s defense to the tune of 300 yards as the Wolverines beat the Buckeyes on the ground. Ohio State has traditionally been stout against the run and okay against the pass. I wouldn’t say USC is one dimensional b/c Barkley has a great arm and talent and the receivers are terrific. But, Barkley will be making his second collegiate start, his first road game and he can’t have a full grasp of the entire SC playbook. A true Freshman QB has never beaten OSU in the Horseshoe. The OSU defense will be focused on the SC running game. With a true frosh QB, only 3 returning starters on defense and playing on the road, there is really no reason why USC should, in theory, be favored let alone win this game. That in itself speaks volumes about the public perception of the players and coaches at Ohio State.
Counter thought to my counter thought:
Then again, exactly how many dimensions does the Buckeye offense have? Let’s see. There’s Terrelle Pryor and ……???